The central bankers’ dilemma

“The inflation that we got was not at all the inflation that we were looking for,” US Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said in his press conference after the Fed’s monetary policy committee decided to accelerate the ‘tapering’ of its bond purchases to zero by March 2022 and suggested that it will start to hike its policy interest rate (the ‘Fed funds’ rate) from zero soon after that.

What did Powell mean by ‘not the inflation we were looking for’?  He did not mean just the level of the inflation rate.  Headline US consumer goods and services inflation is now much higher than the Fed forecast back in September at its last meeting.  And so is what is called ‘core inflation’, which excludes fast-rising energy and food prices.  Headline inflation reached 6.5% in November, the highest rate for nearly 40 years.

But Jay Powell was also referring to the causes of that inflation rate.  It seems that the Fed no longer considers the rise in inflation as ‘transitory’ but likely to hang around for some time, although its median forecast is for the personal consumption inflation (PCE) rate to finish at 5.3% for 2021 but then drop back to 2.6% in 2022 and eventually fall to 2.1% by 2024.  In that sense, the Fed still reckons inflation is ‘transitory’ but it will be higher than previously thought, in the short term.

The reason that there is an ‘unexpected’ sort of inflation, Powell reckons, is due to the extraordinary circumstances of the pandemic.  A normal rise in inflation, according to mainstream theory, would be too much money injected into the banking system, or the result of ‘tight’ labour markets (ie low unemployment) and strong consumer demand as the economy expands.  That is happening, says Powell, but there is the pandemic factor on top of that: “These problems have been larger and longer-lasting than anticipated, exacerbated by waves of the virus.”

In other words, the pandemic has made inflation worse because of 1) pent-up consumer demand as people run down savings built up during lockdowns and 2) supply ‘bottlenecks’ arising in trying to meet that demand – these bottlenecks being created by the restrictions on the international transport of goods and components and continued restrictions on supply – because much of the world is still suffering from the pandemic.

Thus, the Fed is in a dilemma.  If it ‘tightens’ monetary policy ‘too much’ and hikes interest rates ‘too quickly’, it could cause the cost of borrowing to invest or spend to rise to the point where new investment in technology slows and consumer demand for products fizzles out and there is an economic slump.  This is particularly the case, given the record high level of corporate debt. Alternatively, if it does not act to reduce and stop its monetary injections and raise rates, then high inflation may not be transitory at all. 

The result is the Fed is looking for a middle way.  The same applies to the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, both of which met this week too.  The inflation rates in the Eurozone and the UK have also hit new highs.  

UK inflation rate % yoy

In response, the Bank of England has adopted a slightly different approach.  It hiked its policy rate by 0.25% but did not reduce its bond purchases.  The BoE is more worried about stagflation than the Fed.  The inflation rate could stay higher for longer in Britain because of the impact of Brexit on imported goods prices and the loss of labour from EU immigrants returning to Europe.  Moreover, the UK economy is slowing down already, even before the Omicron variant bites.

The ECB is staying more ‘dovish’, because inflation has risen less than in the US or the UK and economic recovery has been slower.  Also, the pandemic variants are spreading fast in Europe.  So the ECB did not raise rates at its meeting and only rejigged its bond purchases slightly.  QE remains in place in the Eurozone and any interest rate hikes are pushed well back into 2023.

Eurozone inflation yoy %

In my view, the dilemma for these central banks is between controlling inflation and avoiding a slump is a false one.  That’s because monetary policy (injecting or withdrawing credit money or hiking or lowering policy rates) is really ineffective in managing inflation or economic activity.  Study after study has shown that ‘quantitative easing’ had little or no effect on boosting the ‘real’ economy or production and investment; and study after study has shown that huge injections of money credit by central banks over the last 20 years have not led to an acceleration of inflation – on the contrary.  So whether the Fed, BoE or ECB speed up the tightening of monetary policy will not work to ‘curb inflation’.  Monetary policy does not work – at least at the levels of interest rates that central banks are envisaging. 

Of course, if the Fed were to resort to interest rates that produced a high positive real interest rate (ie after inflation), similar to what former Fed chair Volcker did to end the high inflation rates of the 1970s, that might work.  The federal funds rate reached a record high of 20 percent in late 1980 while inflation peaked at 11.6% in March. But as Volcker found, it still took years to achieve lower inflation and only after suffering the deepest economic slump of the post-war period to date ie 1980-82.

Why is monetary policy ineffective?  As I have argued in previous posts, it’s because inflation is not a ‘monetary phenomenon’ as the monetarist Milton Friedman argued.  Nor is it the product of wage costs pushing up prices – despite attempts by UK government economists to claim so.  Recently, UK treasury economists warned that “public sector pay increases” could “exacerbate temporary inflation pressure” by contributing to higher wage demands across the economy… and of a “trade off” between higher pay rises and recruiting more staff/ public services investment.  This argument is more to do with avoiding paying public sector workers decent wages than dealing with inflation.

I remind readers of this blog what I pointed out before.  There has never been ‘wage push’ inflation.  Indeed, over the last 20 years until the year of the COVID, real weekly wages rose just 0.4% a year on average, less than the average annual real GDP growth of around 2%+.  It’s the share of GDP growth going to profits that rose. Marx argued that when wages rise, that will not lead to price rises but instead to a fall in profits and that is the real reason why mainstream economics makes so much fuss about wage-push inflation.

If there is going to be any ‘cost-push’ this year, it’s going to come from companies hiking prices as the cost of raw materials, commodities and other inputs rise, partly due to ‘supply-chain’ disruption from COVID.  The FT reports that “price rises have emerged as a dominant theme in the quarterly earnings season which kicked off in the US this month. Executives at Coca-Cola, Chipotle and appliance maker Whirlpool, as well as household brand behemoths Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark, all told analysts in earnings calls last week that they were preparing to raise prices to offset rising input costs, particularly of commodities.”

Instead, the inflation of the prices of production depends ultimately on what is happening to the generation of new value in an economy – and that depends on the rate of accumulation of capital and the profitability of that capital.  Inflation rates reached post-war lows in the 2010s despite ‘quantitative easing because real GDP growth slowed along with investment and productivity growth.  All monetary policy did was weakly counteract that downward pressure on price inflation. 

On the other hand, ‘monetary easing’ did fire up financial speculation and a stock and bond market boom, as the zero cost of borrowing plus unlimited supplies of money fed into financial and property markets.  There was plenty of inflation there.  So as the velocity of money (the turnover of transactions in the ‘real’ economy) dropped, reducing the impact of monetary injections on productive investment and prices of goods and services, prices of financial and other unproductive assets like property rocketed.

Inflation now is ‘transitory’ in the sense that after the ‘sugar rush’ of consumer and investment spending ends during 2022, growth in GDP, investment and productivity will drop back to ‘long depression’ rates.  That will mean that inflation will subside.  The Fed is forecasting just 2% real GDP growth by 2024 and 1.8% a year after that – a rate lower than the average for the last ten years.  In Q3 2021, US productivity growth slumped on the quarter by the most in 60 years, while the year on year rate dropped 0.6%, the largest decline since 1993, as employment rose faster than output. 

Some optimists argue that there will be a boom in capital spending on new technology, automation etc that will drive the productivity of labour upwards.  But the profitability of capital accumulation in all the major economies remains depressed and near all-time lows despite a recovery in 2021. 

As Brian Green put it in his recent post:

“It is likely that demand driven inflation has subsided. It seems with Covid Funds now used up, US consumers are joining the rest of the world in retrenching while container vessels continue to queue outside ports to load and unload. What remains is supply bottlenecks as well as gaming the system. Pipeline inflation or factory gate inflation is evident. Both the US and the UK released record or near record producer prices. When pipeline inflation cannot be satisfied by demand, it is profit margins that suffer and that is what is happening now and it will intensify in the new year.”

And the Omicron and Delta variants of COVID are affecting the production of goods and services.  The latest surveys of economic activity for December (called the PMIs) showed a significant slowdown in the pace of recovery from the pandemic slump.  The UK and Eurozone measures are now at nine-month lows.

Is the stagflation (low growth and high inflation) of the 1970s coming back?  Well, the stag part seems very likely; the inflation part will depend on factors beyond the central banks’ control because it is not the sort of inflation that Jay Powell was expecting.

13 thoughts on “The central bankers’ dilemma

  1. “…over the last 20 years until the year of the COVID, real weekly wages rose just 0.4% a year on average, less than the average annual real GDP growth of around 2%+. It’s the share of GDP growth going to profits that rose.” Great point. I’m still convinced that the devaluation of the currency through printing so much to buy bonds and support the rising prices generated through the rising prices of fictitious capital are causes of inflation. Rising prices due to supply and demand issues are perfectly logical in a commodified wealth economy.

  2. Stagflation may well happen again, but, if it does, will happen for a completely different reason than the original one, from the 1970s.

    The Stagflation Crisis of 1974-1980 was a true crisis of abundance. The West was simply too industrialized, producing too many manufactured goods, at too low prices and too great quantities. Profit rates plummeted by the textbook, in a clear-cut case of the Law of the Tendency of the Profit Rate to Fall. The resulting emerging order – neoliberalism – had a generous and juicy carcass to feed from.

    Today’s would-be Stagflation would happen in a completely different scenario. It would happen in a landscape of a relative and absolute decline of the West (Western Civilization), throughout a multi-national empire in secular deindustrialization and financialization. It would be a Stagflation of disinvestment.

    Therefore, I would like to think that today’s “Stagflation” is going to be the same symptom for a polar opposite disease: a restructuring of the capitalist world, shifting its center from the West to the East (Eurasia).

      1. Yes, it might be so because in the short term we cannot be sure how long inflation rates will stay at current levels or even higher because these rates are affected by supply chain issues much more than the underlying forces of value production. These supply chain issues are affected by the virus variants and responding semi-lockdowns, so it is difficult to forecast. Longer term however, inflation rates depend on the rate of value creation (which looks like remaining low) and the expansion of money supply (which is now being curbed), so inflation rates should subside. As I said stagflation in 2022 may well have the first part but the second is unclear.

      2. @ mandm

        The Stagflation of the 1970s (the original one) happened mainly because the First World countries (the geopolitical “West”/Global North, which also includes Japan) had excess industry, i.e. a too high OCC. It was a crisis of abundance, of bristling wealth generation: the working classes of the Global North had access to many manufacturing goods, on the cheap and of high quality while it had to work relatively little and on relatively great working conditions.

        Translating into very simplistic societal terms: too little people had to work too little time in order to produce everything the working classes of the Global North needed to have a relatively great standard of living, which made the profits of the capitalist class to plummet.

        Today’s stagflation would be because of polar opposite reasons: it would happen because of, mainly, money printing in the Global North – mainly, but not only, the USA. It would be the result of the lack – not the excess – of industry.

        Both are the result of low profitability, but there is more than one path to Rome.

        I don’t think the pandemic is the decisive factor in this, although it does exacerbate the problem. Gas prices in the USA are rising even though they don’t depend on containers. The “container glut” is only happening because the USA is dependent on imports to get the goods it needs to survive in the first place: it would be putting the cart before the oxen to affirm the USA’s inflation problem is the fault of the rest of the world. Long story short, the USA is specializing in being the world’s financial superpower, not the overall (financial and industrial) superpower it was in 1946.

        Sure, the collapse of Toyotism is a factor, but we have to ask ourselves this simple question: California’s port was enough before the pandemic. Why are the American elites complaining about its insufficiency only now, during the pandemic? Why are the lack of truckers suddenly a problem in the USA? The answer is very simple: the USA cheated the system by printing obscene amounts of USDs, thus “fooling” the rest of the world to export excess goods to the USA. As the financial superpower, the USA could “fool” the system for some months (hence the containers glut), but, since it is not the industrial superpower anymore, it could not reciprocate with the rest of the world with the correspondent amount of value to back those USDs up. The rest of the world realized this and is now adjusting, resulting high inflation in the USA.

        Present-day “stagflation” is one more evidence Marx’s Value Theory must be true. It is the only theory that explain both stagflations – the 1970s one and the would-be 2020s one (we’ll see if it really will become a typical stagflationary episode). Other neoclassical and “heterodox” economic theories can either explain (if we can call it that) one or the other, but not both; Marx’s theory explains both, very elegantly.

  3. U.S. Corporate profits, after tax, have risen in the 21 months since 2019, Q4, pre-Covid, risen substantially from $1.023 trillion to $1.754 trillion, up 71%. They did plunge with the first six months of Covid, but then they shot up, 71% above the pre-Covid profits. The New Republic magazine has an article “Corporate Greed Is the Cause of Inflation”. If profits are so high, why are “tight labor market” or “supply chain” issues problems? That should be cutting into profits. If all the corporations are charging each other more, profits should plunge. What could be raising profits? The Fed’s graph is at — Nonfinancial Corporate Business: Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj). — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NFCPATAX — So let’s ask the other question — Why are profits so high? And why do corporations take 91% of profits and use them for dividends and stock buybacks? Not workers’ raises, not research, not added fixed equipment investment? And “price controls”, is that an answer? In hear 2000 corporate post-tax profits were 4.5% of GDP, in 2019 they were double that. Now they are more than double.

  4. ME GUSTA POR QUE SUS NOTAS, SI BIEN MUY TECNICAS ,PRESENTAN ACLARACIONES PARA INEXPERTOS COMO YO, LO QUE ME PERMITE INTERPRETAR QUE MI PAIS SIGUE LAS POLITICAS DEL SUYO ……. PERO CON LA DIFERENCIA QUE A NOSOTROS NO ESQUILMAN CON LOS INTERESES DE LKA DEUDA…….UDES PUEDEN LLEGAR A ACUERDOS CON RUSIA Y CHINA PARA LOGRAR AUNQUE SEA UNA MOMENTANIA ESTABILIDAD…………..NOSOTROS NO…. LE ASEGURO …. LOS SALARIOS NO CONDUCEN A AUMENTOS DE PRECIOS SINO A CAIDA DE GANANCIA…. Y LA INFLACION NO ES MONETARIA ,NI PRODUCTO DE COSTO SALARIAL….QUE DIOS NOS AYUDE LASTIMA QUE NUNCA ESCUCHE QUE FUERA ECONOMISTA , NI HAYA LEIDO A MARX….GRACIAS

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  5. You are quite right to emphasise that money does not gatecrash circulation but is sucked into circulation by the vortex formed by the rapidity of exchanges and the price at which these exchanges take place. The more rapid exchanges the stronger the vortex.Under normal conditions what drives the rapidity or velocity of exchanges is the rate of profit acting on investment.

  6. I am not so sure that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. Why was there no long-term rise of prices for hundreds of years before the 1930:s (according to Anwar Shaikh in his magnum opus)? What happened then was that gold no longer was the universal equivalent and we had to live with fiat money, first coupled to the dollar.

    Otherwise Ricardo and Marx would have been wrong arguing that rising wages will result in lower profits in the long run. In the short run Marx agreed that increasing demand from workers would raise prices, But that increasing demand would be met with increasing output of commodities demanded by workers.

    Short term fluctuations of the prices are easier explained than the long term. But that explanation must, I think, have something to do with the way money is created.

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