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	<title>Comments on: Euro summit: not as long as I live?</title>
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	<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/</link>
	<description>blogging from a marxist economist</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sat, 25 May 2013 23:01:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Lean Ka-Min</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6760</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lean Ka-Min]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Jul 2012 04:41:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6760</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks very much, Michael, for the reprint permission. As mentioned, we&#039;ll be sure to credit the source.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks very much, Michael, for the reprint permission. As mentioned, we&#8217;ll be sure to credit the source.</p>
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		<title>By: michael roberts</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6733</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michael roberts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Jul 2012 06:33:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[hi Lean

Sure that would be fine.  You can describe me as Michael Roberts, socialist economist and author of the book, The Great Recession, published by Lulu (2009).]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>hi Lean</p>
<p>Sure that would be fine.  You can describe me as Michael Roberts, socialist economist and author of the book, The Great Recession, published by Lulu (2009).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: Lean Ka-Min</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6732</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Lean Ka-Min]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Jul 2012 03:38:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am writing from the Third World Network (www.twnside.org.sg) in Penang, Malaysia. We are a non-governmental organisation engaged in research and advocacy on Third World and development issues.

Would it be alright for us to reproduce your piece above in our monthly &quot;Third World Resurgence&quot; magazine? We will be sure to acknowledge this blog as the source and include the URL.

In the event that we may reprint the article, how may we describe you in the author bio?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am writing from the Third World Network (www.twnside.org.sg) in Penang, Malaysia. We are a non-governmental organisation engaged in research and advocacy on Third World and development issues.</p>
<p>Would it be alright for us to reproduce your piece above in our monthly &#8220;Third World Resurgence&#8221; magazine? We will be sure to acknowledge this blog as the source and include the URL.</p>
<p>In the event that we may reprint the article, how may we describe you in the author bio?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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	<item>
		<title>By: sartesian</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6593</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sartesian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jul 2012 15:34:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6593</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t agree that she blinked; more like she winked.  I do most certainly agree that the debt predicament hasn&#039;t, won&#039;t, can&#039;t go away; not with a fiscal union, a monetary union, a political union, or banking union.

Bottom line is, as always, the bottom line.  Germany&#039;s commitments have not increase one speck.  The ESM is too small; Eurozone or EU bonds aren&#039;t going to be issued; and the banking license for the ESM so it can borrow from the ECB?  Possible?  Certainly?  But.. what assets can the ESM utilize to secure the loans without the ECB&#039;s balance sheet in essence quintupling?

I think this all part of the endgame for the monetary union, and the very notion that could be some sort of the United States of Capitalist Europe. 

Anyway, it&#039;s all a bit of speculation and we know where that winds up...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t agree that she blinked; more like she winked.  I do most certainly agree that the debt predicament hasn&#8217;t, won&#8217;t, can&#8217;t go away; not with a fiscal union, a monetary union, a political union, or banking union.</p>
<p>Bottom line is, as always, the bottom line.  Germany&#8217;s commitments have not increase one speck.  The ESM is too small; Eurozone or EU bonds aren&#8217;t going to be issued; and the banking license for the ESM so it can borrow from the ECB?  Possible?  Certainly?  But.. what assets can the ESM utilize to secure the loans without the ECB&#8217;s balance sheet in essence quintupling?</p>
<p>I think this all part of the endgame for the monetary union, and the very notion that could be some sort of the United States of Capitalist Europe. </p>
<p>Anyway, it&#8217;s all a bit of speculation and we know where that winds up&#8230;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: michael roberts</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6531</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michael roberts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Jul 2012 08:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6531</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sartesian.  

Merkel certainly blinked in those small hours.  Now the Germans are trying to convince their people that no concessions were made but, when push came to shove, Merkel blinked -- perhaps for reasons of short-term expediency, but blink she did.  Rather than be faced with Italy having to have a bailout or face dealing with Berlusconi by September she opted for some concessions to buy time.

Of course, the Summit statement had sufficient ambiguity -- especially in terms of its timing -- to give all the players a fig leaf of sorts.  Merkel could correctly tell her parliament she had delivered the growth package that the opposition SPD demanded as condition for its support of the Fiscal Compact and that no ESM funds would be injected into weak peripheral banks until a sober banking supervisory mechanism has been established (December 2012 at the earliest).  The Club Med boys could go home saying they&#039;d won looser conditionality for future support (no Troika programmes), the possibility of direct bank recaps and removal of EFSF senior creditor status.  This simply buys time.

But the ESM remains seriously light on financial resources.  If Spain and/or Italy are forced to ask for a bailout, it will need more money or the game is up.  So then the issue of a banking licence for the ESM to allow the ECB to fund the ESM indefinitely and infinitely will come to a head.  As you say, Merkel is gambling on that not happening.  But so far, the debt crisis has not gone away but spread further.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sartesian.  </p>
<p>Merkel certainly blinked in those small hours.  Now the Germans are trying to convince their people that no concessions were made but, when push came to shove, Merkel blinked &#8212; perhaps for reasons of short-term expediency, but blink she did.  Rather than be faced with Italy having to have a bailout or face dealing with Berlusconi by September she opted for some concessions to buy time.</p>
<p>Of course, the Summit statement had sufficient ambiguity &#8212; especially in terms of its timing &#8212; to give all the players a fig leaf of sorts.  Merkel could correctly tell her parliament she had delivered the growth package that the opposition SPD demanded as condition for its support of the Fiscal Compact and that no ESM funds would be injected into weak peripheral banks until a sober banking supervisory mechanism has been established (December 2012 at the earliest).  The Club Med boys could go home saying they&#8217;d won looser conditionality for future support (no Troika programmes), the possibility of direct bank recaps and removal of EFSF senior creditor status.  This simply buys time.</p>
<p>But the ESM remains seriously light on financial resources.  If Spain and/or Italy are forced to ask for a bailout, it will need more money or the game is up.  So then the issue of a banking licence for the ESM to allow the ECB to fund the ESM indefinitely and infinitely will come to a head.  As you say, Merkel is gambling on that not happening.  But so far, the debt crisis has not gone away but spread further.</p>
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		<title>By: sartesian</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6519</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[sartesian]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jul 2012 21:56:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6519</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What makes anyone think that Merkel backtracked, suffered a defeat, reversed course, compromised etc...?

Was Germany&#039;s commitments, liabilities for funding increased?  No.
ESM/EFSF can rescue banks directly?  No, not exactly as the organizational document for the ESM says all funds go through governments.  Maybe you think that won&#039;t hold, but Merkel is betting that it does.

Italy, Spain escape supervision of the &quot;troika&quot;?  Oh, come on...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What makes anyone think that Merkel backtracked, suffered a defeat, reversed course, compromised etc&#8230;?</p>
<p>Was Germany&#8217;s commitments, liabilities for funding increased?  No.<br />
ESM/EFSF can rescue banks directly?  No, not exactly as the organizational document for the ESM says all funds go through governments.  Maybe you think that won&#8217;t hold, but Merkel is betting that it does.</p>
<p>Italy, Spain escape supervision of the &#8220;troika&#8221;?  Oh, come on&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: representingthemambo</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6417</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[representingthemambo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2012 20:26:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6417</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Reblogged this on &lt;a href=&quot;http://representingthemambo.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/3714/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Representing the Mambo&lt;/a&gt; and commented: 
Another very interesting piece (the web is full of them today so I don’t need to bother writing much!)
I think what this piece reminds us is a theme I have been banging on about it for some time. The German government’s solution to this crisis is not based on economics as such, but is political. It has been exposed as just that in the last 24 hours or so. Under pressure from the more economically significant Spanish and Italians it looks like we now have an agreement to do things that Merkel promised wouldn’t, and more importantly couldn’t happen. Concessions (whether or not they will actually change the end result) are being made that were previously dismissed as unthinkable. An interesting observation one could make about the Eurozone crisis is that there have been quite a number of instances of things being impossible until they become inevitable. Funny that, don’t you think. 
As this piece from one of the most interesting economic commentators on the web points out however, these concessions and commitments will only provide temporary respite. The fundamental questions remain unanswered. 
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Reblogged this on <a href="http://representingthemambo.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/3714/" rel="nofollow">Representing the Mambo</a> and commented:<br />
Another very interesting piece (the web is full of them today so I don’t need to bother writing much!)<br />
I think what this piece reminds us is a theme I have been banging on about it for some time. The German government’s solution to this crisis is not based on economics as such, but is political. It has been exposed as just that in the last 24 hours or so. Under pressure from the more economically significant Spanish and Italians it looks like we now have an agreement to do things that Merkel promised wouldn’t, and more importantly couldn’t happen. Concessions (whether or not they will actually change the end result) are being made that were previously dismissed as unthinkable. An interesting observation one could make about the Eurozone crisis is that there have been quite a number of instances of things being impossible until they become inevitable. Funny that, don’t you think.<br />
As this piece from one of the most interesting economic commentators on the web points out however, these concessions and commitments will only provide temporary respite. The fundamental questions remain unanswered. </p>
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		<title>By: michael roberts</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6416</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[michael roberts]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2012 20:21:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6416</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://drugi.euractiv.com/euro-finance/merkel-eurobonds-lifetime-news-513581

http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-no-shared-debt-liability-lifetime-sources-152640608--finance.html]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://drugi.euractiv.com/euro-finance/merkel-eurobonds-lifetime-news-513581" rel="nofollow">http://drugi.euractiv.com/euro-finance/merkel-eurobonds-lifetime-news-513581</a></p>
<p><a href="http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-no-shared-debt-liability-lifetime-sources-152640608--finance.html" rel="nofollow">http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-no-shared-debt-liability-lifetime-sources-152640608&#8211;finance.html</a></p>
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		<title>By: representingthemambo</title>
		<link>http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/euro-summit-not-as-long-as-i-live/#comment-6415</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[representingthemambo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2012 20:15:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/?p=4242#comment-6415</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Have you got a source for the Merkel quote? I&#039;ve been looking for it but can&#039;t find exactly what I&#039;m after for a piece I&#039;m planning.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Have you got a source for the Merkel quote? I&#8217;ve been looking for it but can&#8217;t find exactly what I&#8217;m after for a piece I&#8217;m planning.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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